Highlights

  • Noumi's outlook is dominated by the binding Scheme Implementation Deed with Arrovest Pty Ltd, following a strategic review tied to the approximately $610 million convertible-note Maturity due May 2027.
  • Dairy & Nutritionals adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled to $21.6 million in FY26, providing the strongest segment-level growth signal heading into FY27.
  • Plant-based Milks Revenue grew 2.4%, but EBITDA fell 14.2% amid higher sales and Marketing Investment -- a trade-off management expects to continue supporting longer-term growth.
  • Noumi does not provide financial guidance and says FY27 performance will remain exposed to Commodity prices, input-cost volatility, currency movements and shifting consumer demand.

Noumi Limited (ASX:NOU) enters FY27 with its outlook shaped as much by capital-structure developments as by operating performance, after a FY26 in which net revenue rose 8.8% to $648.4 million and adjusted operating EBITDA increased 7.6% to $61.8 million.

The central question shaping Noumi's forward outlook is the proposed Scheme Implementation Deed with Arrovest Pty Ltd, signed in July 2026 following a strategic review focused partly on the approximately $610 million convertible-note maturity scheduled for May 2027 -- a transaction that, if completed, could reshape the company's ownership and Capital structure well before that maturity date arrives.

Dairy & Nutritionals Provides the Strongest Growth Signal

Noumi's most encouraging forward indicator comes from its Dairy & Nutritionals segment, where adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled to $21.6 million from $11.1 million in FY26, on revenue growth of 11.6% to $462.0 million. Bulk cream revenue, up 33.5% on higher commodity prices and a 9.1% Volume increase, was a major contributor, though the company expects bulk cream returns to moderate from FY26 levels -- a signal that this segment's exceptional growth rate may not be fully sustained into FY27.

Long-life dairy milk exports increased 49.4%, with export sales now representing 40.4% of total dairy long-life revenue, up from 30.2%, while Nutritional Ingredients revenue grew 22.5% on protein Demand -- both trends that could continue supporting the segment's outlook if sustained. Lactoferrin revenue declined 7.0%, however, and higher protein input costs were only partly recovered through pricing in Consumer Nutritionals, pointing to areas of continued Margin pressure.

Plant-Based Milks Outlook Hinges on Marketing Investment Payoff

Plant-based Milks revenue grew 2.4% to $186.3 million in FY26, but adjusted EBITDA fell 14.2% to $43.1 million as the company invested approximately $6 million in additional sales and marketing resources, including a CRM platform and increased Brand marketing. Whether this investment translates into accelerating growth will be an important test for the segment's FY27 outlook.

Encouragingly, Milklab Oat revenue grew 20.3% and retail revenue increased 44.6%, helping offset a 1.6% decline in HORECA channel sales as domestic economic conditions tightened. International plant-based exports grew 9.8%, with South-East Asian sales up 22.7%, and the company plans further investment in sales capabilities and marketing during FY27, suggesting management is committed to the segment's growth strategy despite the near-term EBITDA impact.

Capital Structure Remains the Defining Issue

Noumi's FY27 outlook cannot be separated from its Capital Structure challenges. The company reported cash at bank and undrawn facilities of just $25.3 million, and its FY26 financial statements were prepared on a going-concern basis, with material uncertainty identified around refinancing its revolving finance Facility and convertible notes.

The binding Scheme Implementation Deed with Arrovest represents the company's proposed path through this challenge, though the schemes remain subject to securityholder, court and regulatory approvals. The statutory net loss narrowed to $67.2 million from $150.0 million, aided by improved trading performance, though the result still included a substantial $91.8 million non-cash fair-value adjustment relating to convertible notes -- a reminder of how significantly the capital structure continues to affect reported outcomes.

No Formal Guidance, But Clear Risk Factors

Noumi does not provide financial guidance, and management has flagged that FY27 performance will remain exposed to commodity prices, input-cost volatility, currency movements and changes in consumer demand. Pretax Earnings before fair-value adjustments and Impairment charges more than doubled to $26.3 million from $12.4 million in FY26, offering some indication of improving underlying profitability, even as the company declines to formalise this into forward guidance given the range of external variables at play.

Conclusion

Noumi's outlook for FY27 is defined less by its operating trajectory -- which showed genuine improvement in FY26, with revenue up 8.8% and adjusted EBITDA up 7.6% -- and more by the resolution of its capital structure. The proposed Arrovest transaction, the approximately $610 million convertible-note maturity due in May 2027, and the ongoing refinancing of the revolving finance facility together represent the dominant factors shaping the company's near-term future. Dairy & Nutritionals' strong earnings growth and continued investment in Plant-based Milks marketing provide operational tailwinds, but the successful navigation of the Arrovest scheme and broader balance-sheet challenges will ultimately determine whether Noumi's improving underlying performance can be sustained into FY27 and beyond.