Labor's Capital Gains Tax and negative gearing changes were sold partly as a way to give younger Australians a better shot at home ownership. A new survey suggests many of those same voters would back a party promising to reverse them. The finding lands as house prices fall, rates hit 4.85 per cent and the opposition sharpens its attack, although the survey comes with important caveats.

What the survey found

A commercial survey of 1,018 Australians was published on 30 October.

It found 66 per cent would vote for a party promising to unwind the changes. That figure was made up of 18 per cent of respondents who said that promise alone would win their vote, and 49 per cent who said they would back such a party while also weighing other policies.

The remaining 34 per cent said a pledge to reverse the changes would not win their vote.

Support was 68 per cent among Gen Z, Millennials and Baby Boomers, and 63 per cent among Gen X.

One in five Gen Z and Millennial respondents, 20 per cent, called it a deciding issue, compared with 14 per cent of Baby Boomers.

Homeowners were more supportive, at 69 per cent, but a majority of renters, 59 per cent, also said they would back a party offering to reverse the changes.

Mansour Soltani said "the generation these reforms were supposed to help could help vote them out."

However, the numbers need to be read with care. This is a commercial online survey by a commercial provider, not a Newspoll, Resolve or other established opinion poll. Its methodology and weighting are not the same as a recognised pollster's, and the results are indicative only.

Sample size matters too. Across 1,018 people, 66 per cent is roughly 672 respondents. The generational breakdowns are based on much smaller groups, so differences of a few percentage points between them may not be meaningful.

The way a question is framed can also shape answers. Asking whether someone would back a party that "unwinds" a tax change is different from asking how they will actually vote.

The survey article also describes the changes loosely. It refers to a 30 per cent minimum tax rate replacing the discount, and says post-12 May purchases can no longer be negatively geared. Both descriptions leave out important detail.

What the law actually does

The Treasury Laws Amendment (Tax Reform No. 1) Act 2026 is already law, having received assent on 26 June 2026.

From 1 July 2027, the 50 per cent CGT discount is replaced by cost-base indexation plus a 30 per cent minimum tax, for gains accruing from that date. It is not simply a new flat rate.

Negative gearing is limited to new builds for properties bought after 7:30pm AEST on 12 May 2026, but only from 1 July 2027. Properties already held at the cut-off are grandfathered.

Further measures, including the definition of a "new residential dwelling" and exemptions for affordable and public housing, are in the Tax Reform No. 3 Bill. That bill passed the House on 29 October and is before a Senate committee.

Who is promising to reverse it

One Nation pledged on 19 October to restore the 50 per cent CGT discount, restore negative gearing capped at two properties, and scrap the 30 per cent minimum tax on discretionary trusts.

Pauline Hanson said at the time: "One Nation will never impose a death tax. We will never impose a tax on the family home."

The negative gearing and CGT law passed the Senate in June with Greens support.

The Coalition has also kept up its attack. On Tuesday, Liberal Senator Andrew Bragg said the changes had "destroyed" confidence and that "no one has won from these taxes".

Treasurer Jim Chalmers defended Treasury's house price assumptions, saying they cover "the next couple of years, not the last couple of months".

Hypothetical example: what the negative gearing change is worth

Hypothetical example: an investor buys an established house after 12 May 2026. In 2027–28 it runs a net rental loss of $12,000 a year after interest and costs.

The investor earns a salary taxed at 30 per cent, plus the 2 per cent Medicare levy, a combined 32 per cent.

If negative gearing applied as it does today, deducting that loss against salary would cut their tax by $12,000 multiplied by 0.32, or $3,840 a year.

Because the property is established and was bought after the cut-off, that $3,840 annual reduction against wage income is not available from 1 July 2027.

An investor who bought the same property before budget night keeps the existing treatment, because their holding is grandfathered.

A party promising to "unwind" the change would, in effect, be offering to restore that $3,840 a year for post-budget buyers in this position.

The backdrop: falling prices and rising rates

The survey arrives in a difficult week for the government. The Reserve Bank raised the cash rate to 4.85 per cent on Tuesday on a six to three vote, saying "housing prices have fallen significantly and the Unemployment rate has risen".

Cotality figures show values are 6.7 per cent below their March peak. Commonwealth Bank now expects a national fall of about 14 per cent from peak to trough.

Whether voters blame the tax changes, interest rates or broader Inflation for that slump is likely to shape how much the issue matters at the next federal election.

What to watch

  • 5–6 November: Senate committee hearings on the Tax Reform No. 3 Bill, which carries follow-up CGT and negative gearing measures. The report is due 13 November.
  • 25 November: The next monthly CPI figures.
  • December: The mid-year budget update.
  • 1 July 2027: The CGT and negative gearing changes start.

A single commercial survey will not settle the politics, and the next federal election is not due for some time. A shift in established polling on the issue would be a much clearer signal.