Highlights

  • The Productivity Commission's final GST distribution report is due to the federal government by 31 December 2026.
  • Public release is listed as "To Be Advised" in 2027, with the government having up to 25 sitting days after receipt to table it in Parliament.
  • The ATO's 2025-26 annual report shows the cost of collecting $100 of GST has fallen from about $1.70 in the early years of the tax to about $0.70.
  • The Grattan Institute suggests a 15% GST could raise up to $76 billion a year, but a rate change would need state agreement and is not government policy.

The Productivity Commission's final word on how GST revenue is shared between the states must reach the federal government by 31 December 2026. But Australians, and state treasuries, may have to wait until 2027 to read it. The Commission lists the public release date as "To Be Advised" in 2027, and the government has up to 25 sitting days after receiving the report to table it. With states budgeting around their GST share, that gap matters.

The Productivity Commission's Timetable

According to the Commission's inquiry page, the final report on GST distribution is due to the government by 31 December 2026. The inquiry has already passed several milestones: the interim report was released on 14 August, public hearings were held from 14 to 18 September, and submissions closed on 30 September. Once the government receives the final report, it must table it in Parliament within 25 sitting days. The Commission lists public release as "To Be Advised" in 2027.

Because the deadline falls on New Year's Eve and Parliament does not usually sit over the summer break, the 25-sitting-day clock would only start running once Parliament returns in 2027. The final recommendations could differ from the interim report, because they will reflect the hearings and the submissions that closed at the end of September.

Why the Delay Matters to the States

GST is collected by the ATO for the Commonwealth and passed on to the states and territories, which use it to fund schools, hospitals and other services. A recommendation to change the distribution formula would be closely watched by state treasurers. A long gap between the government receiving the report and its release means the states may be planning their next budgets without knowing what the Commission has recommended. The final report is advice to government, not law, and any change to the distribution system would require government decisions and, in some cases, legislation.

The Rate Debate: A Higher GST?

Separate from the carve-up, the GST rate is again being discussed. The Grattan Institute says a 15% GST could raise up to $76 billion a year. An academic commentator has suggested a phased path starting with 10.5%, paired with income tax relief for low-income earners. Neither idea is government policy, and neither is before Parliament. Under current intergovernmental arrangements, a change to the GST rate would also be expected to need the agreement of the states.

The broader fiscal backdrop explains why the idea keeps returning. The PBO's July medium-term outlook projects total revenue dipping to 25.9% of GDP in 2028-29, with personal income tax rising to 53.8% of total revenue by 2036-37. The ATO collected $687.4 billion in net tax in 2025-26, and the cost of collecting $100 of GST has fallen to about $0.70.