Victoria's two major parties are both promising land tax relief for property investors at the 28 November election. But for some landlords, the offer may come too late. Rental bond figures cited by investor advocates show about 14,000 fewer active bonds in Victoria over two years, and the timing of each side's land tax cut now matters as much as the headline promise. Here is what the numbers show and what is on the table.

The bond numbers

The Property Investment Professionals of Australia, known as PIPA, reported in October that active Victorian rental bonds stood at 657,002 in September 2025.

That was down from 671,109 two years earlier, a fall of 14,107, or about 2.1 per cent.

Rental bonds are lodged when a tenancy begins and released when it ends, so the number of active bonds is a rough gauge of how many private rentals are occupied. A fall can reflect landlords selling to owner-occupiers, properties left vacant, or homes moved to short-stay use.

The data is now more than a year old, and PIPA's figures do not show why each tenancy ended. But advocates say the trend is consistent with investors leaving.

"We've had investors bail out, not just because of land tax, but it was a bit of a final straw," PIPA chair Cate Bakos said.

What land tax costs investors now

Victoria cut the land tax threshold from $300,000 to $50,000 in 2023. Under current settings, which run until 30 June 2033, holdings from $50,000 to under $100,000 pay a flat $500. Holdings from $100,000 to under $300,000 pay $975.

Holdings above $300,000 pay $975 plus a 0.1 percentage point rate increase.

PIPA calculates that at general rates, an investor with a combined site value of $900,000 pays $4,050 a year, and one with $1.5 million pays $9,150.

Site value is the land component only, not the price of the property. A $700,000 apartment may carry a much lower site value than a house on a large block. Land tax is also assessed on an investor's combined holdings, so owning several modest properties can push the total well past the thresholds.

Labor and the Coalition: same destination, different speeds

Premier Ben Carroll's Labor would reverse the 2023 threshold cut, but gradually. The threshold would rise in $25,000 steps each year from 2027/28 to 2030/31, reaching $150,000, then return to $300,000 by the end of 2033/34.

Labor costs the plan at $230 million over five years.

Its stated funding includes $70 million from fleet consolidation, more than $100 million from fewer public service executive roles, and $798 million from delaying level crossing removals. That adds up to nearly $970 million in total. The crossings involved and the length of the delays have not been named.

The Coalition, which first outlined its position in May, would also return the threshold to $300,000, but over five years rather than six.

It describes the change as returning $500 to $975 a year to owners with holdings up to $300,000. No costing has been reported for the Coalition plan.

The Greens have taken a different approach, proposing a 5.3 per cent land tax on investors with more than $5 million in residential property to fund stamp duty abolition for owner-occupiers.

Hypothetical example: when relief would arrive

Hypothetical example: an investor owns a single unit with a site value of $90,000. Under current settings, they pay a flat $500 a year.

Under Labor's timetable, the threshold would rise to $75,000 in 2027/28, which is still below their site value, so they would keep paying. In 2028/29 it would reach $100,000, taking them out of land tax, assuming the bands otherwise work as they do now.

Across 2028/29 to 2032/33, the years the current settings are scheduled to run, that is five years at $500, or $2,500 in total.

A second investor with a $250,000 site value pays $975. Under Labor's plan, the threshold reaches only $150,000 by 2030/31, so this investor would keep paying until the final step to $300,000 by the end of 2033/34.

The Coalition's path would reach the full $300,000 threshold over five years rather than six, though its start date and year-by-year steps have not been reported. Both examples are simplified and ignore changes in land values.

The gap neither party fills, and other pressures

Neither major party addresses the $975 charge and the 0.1 percentage point rate increase on holdings above $300,000.

That matters because investors with larger portfolios, such as the PIPA examples at $900,000 or $1.5 million, would still face the extra charges under both plans.

PIPA also stresses that the threshold rise is an election promise, not law. Current rates apply until legislation passes.

Land tax is only one cost. The Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate to 4.85 per cent on 3 November, noting that "housing prices have fallen significantly". Melbourne values are 7.3 per cent below their level five years ago, Cotality reports.

Federal changes are also now law. From 1 July 2027, negative gearing is limited to new builds for properties bought after 7:30pm AEST on 12 May 2026, with existing holdings grandfathered.

The state budget is under pressure as well. Victoria's pre-election fiscal update cut land transfer duty and land tax forecasts by about $5 billion over four years, which narrows the room for any new tax relief.

For new supply, the ABS reported 2,895 private house approvals in Victoria in September, the highest of any state.

What to watch

  • 28 November: the election decides which land tax timetable, if any, goes to Parliament.
  • Funding detail: watch for which level crossing projects Labor would delay, and any Coalition costing.
  • 2027/28: the first year either plan could begin lifting the threshold.
  • Updated bond data: newer figures would show whether the decline in rentals has continued.