Australia now has 672,805 self-managed super funds, according to the ATO's March 2026 quarterly statistics, and more than 50,000 new funds were set up in 2025–26. Growth on that scale naturally raises a question: can it last? The answer depends on more than establishment numbers. Wind-ups, an ageing membership, regulatory scrutiny and new compliance rules introduced from July 2026 will all shape where the sector heads next.

The growth story so far

The SMSF Association described 2025–26 as a record year, with more than 50,000 new funds established and 12,264 in the June 2026 quarter alone.

It also said the sector had now recorded three consecutive years of near-record growth, suggesting the latest figures are part of a sustained trend rather than a single spike.'s reporting of ATO data, the number of SMSFs rose by 38,885 in the 12 months to March 2026, an increase of about 6.1 per cent. Membership has grown alongside fund numbers, with the ATO counting 1,239,977 members and total estimated Assets of $1.06 trillion in March 2026.

Establishments versus wind-ups

Sector growth is the gap between funds opening and funds closing, so wind-ups matter as much as new registrations.

In the March 2026 quarter, SMS Magazine reported 11,687 new SMSFs against 658 exits. On those figures, new funds outnumbered closures by roughly 18 to one.

That ratio deserves some caution. The ATO's methodology notes that fund numbers are subject to historical revisions because of late notice of both establishments and wind-ups.

In practice, funds that close are sometimes reported to the ATO well after the event. Recent quarters may therefore understate exits, and the net growth figures could be revised down as more data arrives.

An ageing base could lift closures

The composition of the existing membership is another factor. The ATO's March 2026 statistics show 85 per cent of SMSF members are aged 45 or older.

Over time, an older membership could translate into more funds closing, whether because members die, lose the capacity to manage the fund, simplify their affairs or move their savings to a larger fund in later life.

At the same time, the newest members are markedly younger. The SMSF Association said people aged 35 to 44 made up 39.1 per cent of new members in the June 2026 quarter. If that pattern holds, a younger cohort could help offset closures among older trustees in coming decades.

What could slow the momentum

Several forces could influence establishment numbers in the years ahead, although none can be predicted with confidence.

Market conditions are one obvious factor. The ATO stresses that its quarterly asset totals are statistical estimates projected using assumed Investment returns, so a weaker market could reduce estimated balances and potentially dampen enthusiasm for new funds.

Cost and complexity are another. Running an SMSF involves annual audits, tax returns and Trustee duties, and each change to the rules adds to the administrative load that trustees must manage.

Advice quality is a further important variable. Some new funds are established after professional advice, and regulators have been paying close attention to that advice.

Regulator focus and new operating rules

ASIC's guidance for advisers sets out what it expects when someone is considering an SMSF. In December 2022, ASIC updated its information for advisers and removed earlier references to a minimum balance, saying balance alone is not the driving indicator of suitability. It instead highlighted factors such as costs, risks, diversification, Liquidity and the time commitment involved.

ASIC said it wanted comparisons between SMSFs and APRA-regulated funds to remain relevant and up to date, acknowledging structural differences that make such comparisons complex.

Industry bodies are also focused on advice., SMSF Association chief executive Peter Burgess said the association would keep advocating for reforms that "close the advice gap" and improve consumer outcomes.

For the sector, sustained attention on advice could shape who sets up a fund and why, which in turn could influence the quality and durability of future growth.

The compliance environment has also changed. Payday Super officially started on 1 July 2026, requiring employers to pay super guarantee at the same time as wages.

Contributions must generally reach an employee's fund within seven Business days of payday. SMSFs receiving employer contributions typically need a bank account enabled for the New Payments Platform and must respond to member verification requests.

Lodgement has become more important too. Under the new arrangements, an SMSF whose annual return is more than two weeks overdue can have its regulation details removed from the ATO register that employers use to direct contributions.

For well-run funds, these rules may simply mean updated processes. For funds that fall behind on lodgement, the consequences could now extend to incoming contributions, which may encourage tighter administration across the sector.

Signals worth watching

Rather than predicting where the sector will land, it may be more useful to track a handful of indicators over the next few quarters.

The first is quarterly establishments compared with the same quarter a year earlier. The second is wind-up numbers, including later revisions to earlier quarters. Others include the age mix of new members relative to the existing base, and any further regulator findings on SMSF establishment advice.

Together, these measures could show whether recent growth reflects a lasting change in how Australians approach super or a cycle that eventually moderates.

Burgess has offered one explanation for the momentum, saying the sector "continues to grow, attracting Australians who are engaging with their Superannuation earlier".

The bottom line

With 672,805 funds and a record 50,000-plus establishments in 2025–26, the SMSF sector's recent growth has been strong and sustained. New funds currently far outnumber closures, although wind-up data can be revised as late notices arrive. An older membership base, market conditions, regulatory focus on advice and new Payday Super obligations could all influence the pace from here. Whether the boom continues at this rate remains uncertain, and the coming quarters' data will provide a clearer picture.