Highlights

• Cotality estimates the number of home sales over the past three months is tracking 19.1% lower than a year ago nationally, and 13.3% below the five-year average.

• National home values fell 1.1% in September, the sixth consecutive monthly decline, leaving them 5.2% below the March 2026 peak and flat over the year, Cotality reported.

• Unlike land tax, which is levied each year on land holdings, stamp duty (called land transfer duty in Victoria) is collected only when a property is bought.

• Victoria shows how quickly the assumptions can shift.

A property can be attractively priced and still sit on the market for weeks. As selling periods stretch, the effects reach beyond owners and agents into the transfer-duty revenue that supports state budgets.

Sales Volumes Down 19.1% as Unsold Stock Builds

Cotality estimates the number of home sales over the past three months is tracking 19.1% lower than a year ago nationally, and 13.3% below the five-year average. The falls are steepest in Brisbane, down 27.2%, Sydney, down 26.5%, and Perth, down 24.2%, according to Cotality. Longer campaigns are leaving more homes on the market. Capital city homes are now taking a median of 39 days to sell compared with 23 days a year ago, resulting in an accumulation of advertised supply, Cotality said in its October report. The distinction matters because the headline rule rarely tells the entire story. Timing, eligibility and supporting records can change the outcome for two people facing seemingly similar circumstances.

A Downturn Reaching 97% of Capital-City Suburbs

National home values fell 1.1% in September, the sixth consecutive monthly decline, leaving them 5.2% below the March 2026 peak and flat over the year, Cotality reported. Brisbane values fell 1.5% in the month, Sydney 1.4% and Melbourne 0.7%. Darwin, up 0.4%, was the only capital to record a rise. 97% of capital city suburbs were down in value over the three months to end of September, highlighting the broad-based scope of this negative housing cycle, Cotality research director Tim Lawless said. Cotality links part of the weakness to federal tax policy. A practical decision starts with the numbers, but should not end there. Compare the likely benefit with compliance costs, the chance that assumptions change and any restrictions that apply.

Why Stamp Duty Moves With Turnover

Unlike land tax, which is levied each year on land holdings, stamp duty (called land transfer duty in Victoria) is collected only when a property is bought. That makes it one of the most volatile revenue lines for the states. A policy can create an opportunity while still leaving taxpayers responsible for checking the conditions and keeping suitable evidence.

Victoria's Budget Was Built on Rising Volumes

Victoria shows how quickly the assumptions can shift. In its December 2025 budget update, the Department of Treasury and Finance forecast land transfer duty of $10.1 billion in 2025–26, growing by an average 5.2% a year. One observation is useful context, not a guarantee about what happens next.

Sellers, Buyers and Investors in a Slower Market

For sellers, a longer campaign typically brings extra holding costs, such as interest, council rates and insurance, and possibly a lower sale price than first hoped. For buyers, rising inventory means more choice and potentially more room to negotiate. Cash flow, deadlines and documentation deserve attention before any commitment.

What to Watch: Mid-Year Updates and Spring Results

Cotality's next monthly index, due in early November, will show whether the spring selling season has lifted turnover or simply added to unsold stock. Victorians vote on 28 November, and state mid-year budget updates, usually released around December, will be the first official read on whether duty forecasts need trimming. Proposed rules and draft administrative guidance should be distinguished from provisions already enacted.

General information only. This article is educational and does not constitute personal financial, tax or legal advice.