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Index Update: The Australian sharemarket recorded a narrow decline on Thursday, with the S&P/ASX 200 slipping 13.60 points, or 0.16%, to 8,742.80. Despite the daily loss, the benchmark index has delivered its fourth consecutive month of gains, up 2.35% over the past month and 0.38% for the week, sitting just 0.38% below its 52-week high. Sector performance was mixed, with Information Technology (+1.34%) and Consumer Discretionary (+1.11%) leading gains, while Materials (-2.56%) and Energy (-0.45%) weighed on the market.
Macro Update: Australian retail turnover rose 1.2% in June 2025 (seasonally adjusted), following a 0.5% increase in May and a flat April, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Meanwhile, export prices fell 4.5% in the June quarter and 3.3% year-on-year, driven largely by declines in natural resource prices. Non-rural exports dropped 7.2% for the quarter and 8.7% over the year, with iron ore and coal prices falling 9.0% and 10.4% respectively. The import price index fell 0.8% this quarter but rose 1.4% through the year.
Top Market Movers: Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited (ASX: NEU) led the gainers, rising AUD 0.660 or 3.97% to close at AUD 17.290. Life360 Inc. (ASX: 360) advanced AUD 1.260 or 3.24% to end at AUD 40.160, while Megaport Limited (ASX: MP1) gained AUD 0.470 or 3.22% to finish at AUD 15.060. On the downside, Champion Iron Limited (ASX: CIA) slipped 13.13% to AUD 4.170, Beach Energy Limited (ASX: BPT) fell 9.30% to AUD 1.170, and Flight Centre Travel Group Limited (ASX: FLT) declined 7.30% to AUD 11.940.
Commodity Update: The US dollar approached a two-month high on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell maintained a patient stance on interest rates, offering little guidance on potential rate cuts. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s softened copper tariffs pressured Comex premiums. Gold slipped 0.30% to USD 3,342.60 per ounce, silver dropped 1.73% to USD 37.09 per ounce, copper declined 0.40% to USD 9,679.45, and Brent crude rose 0.40% to USD 73.51 amid supply concerns and geopolitical tensions.
Our Stance: Despite the modest dip on Thursday, the market reflects resilience, buoyed by consumer and tech strength even as materials and energy dragged. Softer export prices and falling iron ore and coal weighed on sentiment, offset by upbeat June retail sales. Commodity moves were mixed, with gold and silver easing while Brent crude firmed on supply concerns. Overall, the market’s proximity to its 52‑week high and four‑month winning streak signals cautious optimism amid global macro headwinds and shifting commodity dynamics.
The S&P/ASX 200 Index ended the session lower, slipping 13.60 points and forming a bearish candlestick pattern on elevated trading volume an indication of increased selling pressure. Despite the pullback, the index continues to trade above its 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily chart, a key technical support level closely monitored by traders. A crucial support zone is established near 8,630.40. Maintaining this level would be important for consolidating recent gains and reinforcing confidence in the broader uptrend. On a higher timeframe, the index also remains above its 21-period SMA on the weekly chart, suggesting the potential for sustained bullish momentum. The convergence of support levels across both daily and weekly charts underscores the index’s underlying resilience, supporting a broadly positive outlook despite short-term volatility.
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