Nine Entertainment
The shares of Nine Entertainment have been under pressure ever since it reported a weak outlook update on June 5
th 2015, which led to the stock slump of over 28.1% post this event till date (from June 5
th to July 9
th). The company now expects its EBITDA (before specific items, and inclusive of Nine Live) to be in the range of $285 million to $290 million, as compared to $311 million during the same period last year. The free to air market was earlier expected to grow by 2% during May and June of 2015, but is now forecasted to show a single digit decline during this period.
But NEC has been making all the efforts to offset its declining revenues from traditional formats like TV and newspaper by penetrating into other rapidly growing streams like online media. As a result the group acquire Mi9 in 2013, and has developed a strong audience network reaching over 12.3 million online domestic publishers. NEC wants to be grab a major share in online display market as well as tap the growing online video advertising opportunity. Moreover as per price water coopers estimates, internet is expected to contribute over 51% of advertising dollars by 2019, which is an increase of 34% from 2014. Also, online streaming services like Netflix have been diverting TV audiences. Consequently, Nine Entertainment entered into a 50:50 joint venture with Fairfax Media in September 2014, launching an Australian Subscription video on demand service call Stan, to tap the online streaming services opportunity. Fairfax Media as well as NEC shareholders have dedicated funds upto $50 million each, for a multiyear period to break even. Stan has been attracting decent customer base and received 100,000 gross sign ups by Mid-March 2015 and intends to achieve a range of 300,000 to 400,000 active subscribers by December 2015. The present streaming run rate is over 1.5 million hours per month. Rumors have also been swirling around possible Nine Entertainment’s gain of broadcasting rights for major sports events like AFL and the NRL, to maintain its dominant position
Stan’s Performance (Source: Company Reports)
Meanwhile, the group intends to maintain its final dividend to over 5 cents per share and declare it post the full year results in August 2015. Nine Entertainment estimates to improve its annual dividend payout ratio to 80% to 100% of net profit after tax (pre specific items).
NEC’s Stan growing customer base, buyback program is expected to drive the stock going forward. Based on the foregoing, we recommend investors to see the recent correction as a buying opportunity and invest in the stock at the current price levels of $1.425.
Seven West Media
Seven West has reported a year over year decrease of its profit after tax of $137.5 million (excluding significant items) impacted by lower advertising revenues and consequently a loss after tax of $993.6 million (including significant items). Moreover, the firm reported over $1,148 million in significant items mainly due to goodwill impairment. The group’s underlying EBIT fell by 9.3% to $226.9 million, as compared to the corresponding period of last year.
On the other hand, the company continues to maintain its market leadership position, comprising 40.8% revenue share in the FTA TV advertising revenue market. Seven west has seven leads in drama and reality franchises and extended rights for Wimbledon till 2020. The AGL Grand final generated year over year audience growth of over 4%, while the NFL audiences improved 28% driven by 7mate. The company’s Wimbledon execution strategy is ongoing. The group reported that the demand for major franchising programs has increased as compared to the last year as well as witnessed a strong response to the Olympic sponsorship package.
Metro FTA TV advertising revenues market share (Source: Company Reports)
Moreover, to capitalize the on demand content opportunity the group launched SVOD service-Presto under the joint venture with Foxtel. As per the firm’s outlook, digital and magazines segment continue to drive the advertising revenues while the group cost is expected to be over 1% during fiscal year of 2015. Accordingly, the management intends to maintain the dividends at 12 cents per share for the entire fiscal year of 2015.
Seven Daily Chart (source - Thomson Reuters)
Seven West Media Ltd (ASX: SWM) shares have also been adversely impacted due to the trading update by Nine Entertainment. The stock fell over 18.8% till date (since June 5
th), and slumped over 32.6% over the last three months, partly attributed to the poor first half of 2015 performance as well. Meanwhile, the group’s improving digital and magazines business and dividends is expected to support the stock in the coming months. Moreover, the company has recently reaffirmed its guidance and estimates the net profit to be in the range of $205 million to $ 215 million. Based on the foregoing, we recommend a “BUY” on SWM at the current price levels of $0.90.
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