The market expects FLT’s 1H15 PBT of $138.9m in consensus with the guidance of $136-142m. FLT is a quality business, although near-term cyclical risk in view of soft consumer confidence prevails. The 1H15 Total Transaction Value of $7,894m which is an increase of 6% on pcp is expected. The Company is expected to declare a fully franked interim dividend of 48.5cps with a normalised payout ratio of 50%. Weak consumer confidence with pitiable enquiry levels has driven flatness in the outbound and domestic Australian leisure travel market. However, FLT’s approach of lowering service fees in view of pricing of products appears to bring a sigh of relief. This would be resulting in margin compression. There is an increase in cost base although return on investment has not been taken into account. An estimated investment rise in areas of the cost base including wages, sales and marketing costs has been indicated by FLT. This is not expected to result in a lift in TTV. Nonetheless, the total FY15 TTV is expected to increase by 6% despite growing 7% in FY15 to the AGM date. 50% growth on pcp is expected from the US with a view to have FY15 EIBT of US$17-18m. The impact on earnings owing to seasonal developments is expected to be reduced. Then business is expected to grow to 1.0bn GBP by FY15 and 1.5bn GBP by FY17 in the UK. The ~1% market share is expected to grow further. Of course, more clarity is to be sought through the interim results pending to be out in February 2015.
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